CTI Berlin 2022
Observations on what used to be the world’s largest transmission conference.
For many years I have enjoyed attending the CTI Symposia in Berlin, in the US and in China. I gave presentations on all 3 of them. It is the ideal opportunity to keep track of the developments in the market and it is the opportunity to maintain and extend your network.
“Only one transmission presentation in 2022”
Over the past decade much has changed. The CTI edition in the USA in 2013 only had one presentation related to Electric Vehicles. The Technical University of Braunschweig presented on the role of the transmission in an EV. Last December’s conference in Berlin, only had one real presentation on transmissions. With the rise of Electric Vehicles and the required electric drives, the scope has changed and broadened. The Symposium is now also a platform for E-motors, power electronics, batteries, charging infrastructure and fuel cells.
OEMs and E-motor makers
The increasing share for Electric Vehicles in the coming years is well-known. S&P Global Mobility showed that the share of in-house E-motor and Electric Drive production at OEMs would drastically increase. OEMs will reduce their engine production. To avoid making a large part of their workforce redundant, they are of course looking for alternatives. E-drives is the obvious choice. That’s bad news for transmission makers. Mind you, the increasing E-Drive volumes go hand-in-hand with decreasing transmission volumes.
Apart from OEMs, traditional transmission makers face other competition as well. It has been clear for many years that competition would become fierce with axle producers, E-motor manufacturers and part suppliers such as AAM, Dana, GKN, Bosch, Marelli, Valeo, Vitesco and BorgWarner, and so on. CTI Berlin 2022 unambiguously proved that the E-motor is the center of the E-Drive. Much more than transmission makers, E-motor producers are capable to define modularity on the side of the E-motor and define their portfolio and build their production lines accordingly.
This increased competition and the level of this competition does not bode well for transmissions makers. The one chance they had was to team up with an E-motor producer and accept that their role is now only a supporting one. Alternatively should look for innovations. The big difficulty for a transmission maker is to bring a Unique Selling Point to the table. Such a USP is a huge challenge to find.
That one transmission presentation
Coming back to the transmission presentation. Based on the recent announcement of their website of the launch of its eDCT (hybrid Dual Clutch Transmission made in a Joint Venture with Stellantis), one would expect Punch Powertrain to be present this product at CTI as tradition dictates.
Remarkably, Stellantis presented together with Magna a new hybrid transmission. In fact a direct comptetitor for the eDCT. Clearly this is a leftover from the deal that FCA made with Magna before it merged with PSA into Stellantis.
Picture: Magna press release. Presented by Stellantis and Magna at CTI Symposium Berlin 2022.
One might wonder why Stellantis prioritized the Magna transmission over the transmission from the Stellantis-Punch Joint Venture. The fact that Stellantis is still betting on 2 horses with two transmissions with in the basis the same specification is remarkable as well. Is this a matter of risk management or is there just no compensation possible towards Magna because of the upcoming Battery Electric Vehicles (for which Stellantis has another JV with Nidec)?
In any case, concerning news for transmission makers. Transmission makers such as ZF and Magna who are part of a much bigger organization with a large diversification will undoubtably survive. Smaller and undiversified players face an unenviable challenge.
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